Could we remain in an ENSO-neutral phase? Yes, and that is still a distinct possibility. Could there be a transition to an El Niño instead of a La Niña? There could be such a transition, and the models are now actually hinting at an eventual El Niño solution. What do we expect for the future? Most climate forecast models suggest that we will remain in the ENSO-neutral phase through the Summer and into the Fall, then begin to transition to a La Niña phase. Options: So where are we now? We are now in an ENSO-neutral phase. In El Niño years, the odds are 1 in 3 or about once every 3 years, while in La Niña the odds drop to 1 in 10 or about once every 10 years. In general, the odds of Guam getting a typhoon are about 1 in 5 or about once every 5 or 6 years. During an ENSO-neutral state, which is the transition state between El Niño and La Niña, the chance of getting a direct hit by a tropical storm or a typhoon is much better than during La Niña, but not quite as good as during El Niño. During El Niño events, the chance of Guam getting a direct hit triples when compared to the chance during non-El Nino periods. In this case, they usually move west or northwest before significantly intensifying. When a La Niña event occurs, the storms tend to develop later in the year and west of or near the Mariana Islands. They tend to move toward the west, west-northwest or northwest, often toward Guam. When an El Niño occurs, tropical storms and typhoons begin to develop earlier in the year and farther to the east toward eastern Micronesia. If a tropical storm or typhoon develops west or north of Guam, it will usually move away from the island. Thus, if a tropical storm or typhoon develops southeast or east of Guam, it will often track toward the island. In the tropics, tropical cyclones generally move from east or southeast to west or northwest. These predictions could change over the next few months.īackground: For Micronesia, there is a relatively predictable relationship between tropical cyclone activity and the state of ENSO. It is prepared for the Government of Guam, Guam citizens, visitors, and other interested parties. This assessment is based on independent Pacific-wide typhoon predictions, internal forecast assessments for Micronesia activity, the current and predicted states of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, and the historical tropical cyclone activity associated with past ENSO states. This is the coordinated assessment for tropical storm and typhoon activity for the island of Guam for the remainder of 2020. *Landon Aydlett, National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Mark Lander, PEAC Scientist, Water and Environmental Research Institute, UOG Chip Guard, Sole Proprietor of Tropical Weather Sciences (Guam) Read the tropical storm and typhoon activity report in FULL below: Typhoon Predictions for Guam for 2020-UPDATE Typhoons can occur throughout the year in our region, but the most tropical depressions that affect the Marianas form between July and November. And Super Typhoon Hagibis passed just north of Saipan, sparing the island the worst of its winds.Īydlett emphasized that “this is not a land-fall forecast” and that things can change. That skirted around south of Guam and created some problems here. The strongest typhoons last year were Typhoon Wutip in February 2019. Although there were several near misses, he said there were no direct hits on Saipan, Tinian, Rota, or Guam in 2019.
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